сряда, 2 юли 2014 г.

Bryan Caplan: 21 Short Claims About Political Motivation


Препечатвам този пост на Брайан Каплан, като мисля наистина, че неговите изисквания към политиците са твърде интелигентни за тяхното стандартно интелектуално ниво.

21 Short Claims About Political Motivation



Yesterday I wrote:
If you want lots of X, but are too ignorant to evaluate X's indirect effects, you probably just really love X.  If you want lots of ice cream, but are too ignorant to evaluate ice cream's effect on your health, you probably just really love ice cream.  If you want lots of government, but are too ignorant to evaluate government's overall consequences, you probably just really love government.
Lest you think I'm picking on liberals, I now proceed to broadly generalize my initial claim.

1. If you want lots of defense spending, but are too ignorant to evaluate defense spending's overall consequences, you probably just really love defense spending.

2. If you want lots of liberty, but are too ignorant to evaluate liberty's overall consequences, you probably just really love liberty.

3. If you want lots of education, but are too ignorant to evaluate education's overall consequences, you probably just really love education.

4. If you want lots of labor regulation, but are too ignorant to evaluate labor regulation's overall consequences, you probably just really love labor regulation.

5. If you want to invade lots of countries, but are too ignorant to evaluate the overall consequences of invading countries, you probably just really love invading countries.

6. If you want lots of environmental regulation, but are too ignorant to evaluate environmental regulation's overall consequences, you probably just really love environmental regulation.

7. If you want lots of deregulation, but are too ignorant to evaluate deregulation's overall consequences, you probably just really love deregulation.

8. If you want lots of taxes on the rich, but are too ignorant to evaluate taxes on the rich's overall consequences, you probably just really love taxes on the rich.

9. If you want lots of tax cuts, but are too ignorant to evaluate tax cuts' overall consequences, you probably just really hate taxes.

10. If you want lots of freedom of speech, but are too ignorant to evaluate freedom of speech's overall consequences, you probably just really love freedom of speech.

11. If you want strict drug laws, but are too ignorant to evaluate drug laws' overall consequences, you probably just really love drug laws.

12. If you want to end drug prohibition, but are too ignorant to evaluate drug prohibition's overall consequences, you probably just really hate drug prohibition.

13. If you want much lower population, but are too ignorant to evaluate much lower population's overall consequences, you probably just really hate people.

14. If you want much higher population, but are too ignorant to evaluate much higher population's overall consequences, you probably just really love people.

15. If you want much lower business taxes, but are too ignorant to evaluate business taxes' overall consequences, you probably just really hate business taxes.

16. If you want drastic welfare cuts, but are too ignorant to evaluate welfare cuts' overall consequences, you probably just really hate welfare.

17. If you want much lower immigration, but are too ignorant to evaluate immigration's overall consequences, you probably just really hate immigration.

18. If you want much higher immigration, but are too ignorant to evaluate immigration's overall consequences, you probably just really love immigration.

19. If you want lots of trade restrictions, but are too ignorant to evaluate trade restrictions' overall consequences, you probably just really love trade restrictions.

20. If you want far fewer unions, but are too ignorant to evaluate unions' overall consequences, you probably just really hate unions.

21. If you want lots more government health care, but are too ignorant to evaluate government health care's overall consequences, you probably just really love government health care.

Note that in each case, I say "probably."  There actually is an elegant moral framework that justifies strong moral views in the face of deep ignorance.  I call itweak deontology.  On this view, some policies are morally obligatory unless there is strong evidence that their consequences are very bad.  See the forced organ donation hypothetical or my common-sense case for pacifism.

But does anyone really think that ignorant political activists are this philosophically sophisticated?  Emotion-driven stories of the form, "If you want lots more X, but are too ignorant to evaluate X's overall consequences, you probably just really love X" are none too flattering.  But if you listen to the silly way most activists talk, the unflattering story seems very true.

Disagree?  What if I amend my statement to, "But if you listen to the silly waymost activists who disagree with you talk, the unflattering story seems very true"?
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/07/32_short_claims.html

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