вторник, 26 август 2014 г.

Charles Hugh Smith: It's Not Just Politics That's Broken--The Status Quo's Model of "How the World Works" Is Broken



Днес гост постът е на Чарлс Хю Смит. 

It's Not Just Politics That's Broken--The Status Quo's Model of "How the World Works" Is Broken   (August 26, 2014)


http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug14/model-broken8-14.html

The Status Quo is dysfunctional because its model of how the world works is broken.

Much has been written about the dysfunction in Washington D.C. Pundits have been wringing their hands for years over the rise of bitter partisan politics and the resulting gridlock. The impact of this--what I have termed profound political disunity--extends beyond the narrow confines of domestic politics, a reality reflected in Foreign Affairs new survey of our winter of political discontent, Dysfunction Junction.
But all these discussions of our dysfunctional politics ignore the larger truth, which is the entire model of the Status Quo is broken. Even if reformers succeeded in ridding the political system of cronyism and favors-for-campaign-contributions--two essentially impossible reforms, given the legalistic cover provided for cronyism and bought and paid for representatives, the basic model of "how the world works" that dominates the world-view of leaders across the political spectrum would remain broken.




1. The current gridlock continues, and the policies in place grind on with minor tweaks.
2. The Democrats win a sweeping victory and are able to unilaterally impose their reforms.
3. The Republicans win a sweeping victory and are able to unilaterally impose their reforms.
Why do we know the entire model is broken? Because all three alternatives lead to a continuation of the same ruinous model of "how the world works":
1. A continued reliance on Keynesian Cargo Cult "stimulus," i.e. borrowing and blowing trillions of dollars to prop up inefficient, bloated, corrupt, wasteful crony-capitalist cartels and politically untouchable fiefdoms.
2. The continued destruction of open, transparent markets via intervention by the central state and bank.
3. The continued expansion of the Welfare State, i.e. entitlements such as Medicaid and ObamaCare subsidies and implicit entitlements such as farm price supports, corporate tax breaks, mortgage interest deductions, etc.
4. The continued expansion of the National Security State, whose premises are A) everyone on the planet is guilty until proven innocent and B) only Total Information can protect "us" (i.e. the National Security State itself) from threats.
5. The continued erosion of civil liberties via death by a thousand cuts.
6. The rising dependence on borrowed money to fund standard government services.
7. The rising dependence on manipulated/gamed statistics to manage perceptions that the Status Quo is eternal, powerful and improving everyone's lives, even as it serves the narrow interests of self-serving Elites and insiders.
8. The expansion of a Permanent War State that recognizes no boundaries between domestic and international threats, hence the militarization of local police forces and the rise of private mercenaries in the guise of for-profit domestic prisons and police forces.
9. A central bank (the Federal Reserve) that will continue to support the most rapacious, opaque and self-serving financial Elites with free money for financiers.
10. The continuing purchase of political favors by monied Elites via lobbying and campaign contributions.
11. An ever-rising dependence on generating the appearance of stability, transparency, competence and expertise as a substitute for actual stability, transparency, competence and expertise. In other words, an expanding reliance on gaming dysfunctional systems rather than actually repairing dysfunctional systems.
12. An increasing reliance on zero-interest rates, debt and free money for financiers as the "fix" for every economic ill.

The Status Quo is dysfunctional because its model of how the world works is broken.It won't matter if gridlock remains in place or one of the parties gets to impose its "brand" of policy-tweaks; since no one on the political spectrum has any concept that the current model described in these 12 points is broken, fixing the political dysfunction won't fix the systemic dysfunction. 

събота, 9 август 2014 г.

Цитат на деня


"Смъртта винаги е по-безболезнена и по-лека от живота! Ти казваш истината. И все пак не избираме смъртта ден след ден. Защото в крайна сметка смъртта не е обратното на живота, а е обратното на избора. Смъртта е онова, което получаваш, след като не са ти останали никакви избори. Прав ли съм?"

Робин Хоб

"Мисията на шута"

петък, 1 август 2014 г.

събота, 19 юли 2014 г.

Пировият триумф на бляновете за велика Русия


Както се вижда от графиката по- долу, тази година руснаците са заобичали  много повече президента Путин, правителството си, особено армията си, та дори са започнали да вярват, че изборите са честни. Защото за миналата година доверието в тези институции е доста ниско. Еуфорията сред населението от анексирането на Крим и войната, която води Русия в Украйна, е огромна. Явно, тази война е била много нужна на руснаците и на техния президент Путин. "Възраждането" на велика Русия е в ход, националната гордост е "възстановена". Неизбежните човешки жертви са на втори план, още повече - руснаците дават, както винаги, живота си за родината. Какво значение има човешкият живот на фона на месианските напъни на преидента Путин?

Тези реалности навяват значителен скептицизъм относно края на конфликта в Украйна. Увеличаването на  невинните жертвите в него вече е факт. Пред Европа и САЩ стоят за решаване тежки въпроси, за което те не изглеждат готови. Безсилието на развития свят вероятно ще има като резултат разширяване на конфликта в средносрочен план.  




http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Russia-Gallup-confidence_Putin-government-elections-military.png

А ето и необходимият враг за мнозиството руснаци, разбира се  това са САЩ и ЕС. Графиката има аналогичен тренд през 2014, спрямо 2013 г. 

Китай се оформя като добрият руски съюзник. Все пак, да му мисли Китай, това харесване не е на добро.


http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Russia-Gallup-approval-USA_EU_China.png

 Агресивната руска политика няма добри перспективи в дългосрочен план, нито за руснаците, нито за европейците, напротив. Мечтите за велика Русия ще останат само скъпи, безплодни напъни за налагане на руските интереси на останалия свят, който има други интереси. Войната и сега изглежда е пред вратата.

вторник, 15 юли 2014 г.

Изобилие



http://www.csmonitor.com/var/ezflow_site/storage/images/media/content/csm-photo-galleries-images/photos-of-the-day-images/2014/0714/15/18721951-1-eng-US/15_full_900x600.jpg

сряда, 2 юли 2014 г.

Bryan Caplan: 21 Short Claims About Political Motivation


Препечатвам този пост на Брайан Каплан, като мисля наистина, че неговите изисквания към политиците са твърде интелигентни за тяхното стандартно интелектуално ниво.

21 Short Claims About Political Motivation



Yesterday I wrote:
If you want lots of X, but are too ignorant to evaluate X's indirect effects, you probably just really love X.  If you want lots of ice cream, but are too ignorant to evaluate ice cream's effect on your health, you probably just really love ice cream.  If you want lots of government, but are too ignorant to evaluate government's overall consequences, you probably just really love government.
Lest you think I'm picking on liberals, I now proceed to broadly generalize my initial claim.

1. If you want lots of defense spending, but are too ignorant to evaluate defense spending's overall consequences, you probably just really love defense spending.

2. If you want lots of liberty, but are too ignorant to evaluate liberty's overall consequences, you probably just really love liberty.

3. If you want lots of education, but are too ignorant to evaluate education's overall consequences, you probably just really love education.

4. If you want lots of labor regulation, but are too ignorant to evaluate labor regulation's overall consequences, you probably just really love labor regulation.

5. If you want to invade lots of countries, but are too ignorant to evaluate the overall consequences of invading countries, you probably just really love invading countries.

6. If you want lots of environmental regulation, but are too ignorant to evaluate environmental regulation's overall consequences, you probably just really love environmental regulation.

7. If you want lots of deregulation, but are too ignorant to evaluate deregulation's overall consequences, you probably just really love deregulation.

8. If you want lots of taxes on the rich, but are too ignorant to evaluate taxes on the rich's overall consequences, you probably just really love taxes on the rich.

9. If you want lots of tax cuts, but are too ignorant to evaluate tax cuts' overall consequences, you probably just really hate taxes.

10. If you want lots of freedom of speech, but are too ignorant to evaluate freedom of speech's overall consequences, you probably just really love freedom of speech.

11. If you want strict drug laws, but are too ignorant to evaluate drug laws' overall consequences, you probably just really love drug laws.

12. If you want to end drug prohibition, but are too ignorant to evaluate drug prohibition's overall consequences, you probably just really hate drug prohibition.

13. If you want much lower population, but are too ignorant to evaluate much lower population's overall consequences, you probably just really hate people.

14. If you want much higher population, but are too ignorant to evaluate much higher population's overall consequences, you probably just really love people.

15. If you want much lower business taxes, but are too ignorant to evaluate business taxes' overall consequences, you probably just really hate business taxes.

16. If you want drastic welfare cuts, but are too ignorant to evaluate welfare cuts' overall consequences, you probably just really hate welfare.

17. If you want much lower immigration, but are too ignorant to evaluate immigration's overall consequences, you probably just really hate immigration.

18. If you want much higher immigration, but are too ignorant to evaluate immigration's overall consequences, you probably just really love immigration.

19. If you want lots of trade restrictions, but are too ignorant to evaluate trade restrictions' overall consequences, you probably just really love trade restrictions.

20. If you want far fewer unions, but are too ignorant to evaluate unions' overall consequences, you probably just really hate unions.

21. If you want lots more government health care, but are too ignorant to evaluate government health care's overall consequences, you probably just really love government health care.

Note that in each case, I say "probably."  There actually is an elegant moral framework that justifies strong moral views in the face of deep ignorance.  I call itweak deontology.  On this view, some policies are morally obligatory unless there is strong evidence that their consequences are very bad.  See the forced organ donation hypothetical or my common-sense case for pacifism.

But does anyone really think that ignorant political activists are this philosophically sophisticated?  Emotion-driven stories of the form, "If you want lots more X, but are too ignorant to evaluate X's overall consequences, you probably just really love X" are none too flattering.  But if you listen to the silly way most activists talk, the unflattering story seems very true.

Disagree?  What if I amend my statement to, "But if you listen to the silly waymost activists who disagree with you talk, the unflattering story seems very true"?
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/07/32_short_claims.html